Group Presentation

Survey Methodology II

Frederick, Sofia, Alex

2024-03-20

Data cleaning

Cleaning data
Tidy data
Joining datasets (World Bank Data | Trans Rights Indicator Project)

Feature selection

-   Campbell, M., Hinton, J. D. X. & Anderson, J. R. (2019) A systematic review of the relationship between religion and attitudes toward transgender and gender-variant people. International Journal of Transgenderism, 20:1, 21-38, DOI: 10.1080/15532739.2018.1545149
-   Earle, M. et al. (2021). A multilevel analysis of LGBT (Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender) rights support across 77 countries: The role of contact and country laws . British Journal of Social Psychology. doi:10.1111/bjso.12436
-   Flores, A. R. (2015) Attitudes toward transgender rights: perceived knowledge and secondary interpersonal contact, Politics, Groups, and Identities, 3:3, 398-416, DOI: 10.1080/21565503.2015.1050414-
-   Flores, A. R., Brown, T. N. T., & Park, A. S. (2016). Public Support for Transgender Rights: A Twenty-three Country Survey. The Williams Institute at UCLA School of Law. <http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep34965->
-   Harrison, B.F., Michelson, M.R. (2019) Gender, Masculinity Threat, and Support for Transgender Rights: An Experimental Study. Sex Roles 80, 63–75. <https://doi.org/10.1007/s11199-018-0916-6>
-   Norton, A.T., Herek, G.M. (2013) Heterosexuals’ Attitudes Toward Transgender People: Findings from a National Probability Sample of U.S. Adults. Sex Roles 68, 738–753.

Descriptive Analysis

Binary conception of gender

Rights
Gender binary
Association

df_country_1 <- 
  df_descriptive |>
  group_by(country_name) |> 
  summarize(
    prop_gndr_bin = (sum(qc20_multinominal == "Yes") / n())*100, 
    prop_qc19_yes = (sum(qc19 == 1) / n())*100)


cor(df_country_1$prop_gndr_bin, df_country_1$prop_qc19_yes, method = "spearman")

[1] 0.9226601

Religiosity

Cross Table
Share of Orthodox Christians


   Cell Contents
|-------------------------|
|                   Count |
|             Row Percent |
|          Column Percent |
|           Total Percent |
|           Adj Std Resid |
|-------------------------|

Total Observations in Table:  27438 

                       | df_descriptive$qc19_multinominal 
df_descriptive$sd3_cat |        Yes  |         No  | Don't know  |  Row Total | 
-----------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
    Atheist | Agnostic |      3860  |      1458  |       485  |      5803  | 
                       |     66.52% |     25.12% |      8.36% |     21.15% | 
                       |     26.69% |     15.04% |     14.79% |            | 
                       |     14.07% |      5.31% |      1.77% |            | 
                       |     23.72  |    -18.32  |     -9.51  |            | 
-----------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
              Catholic |      5605  |      4241  |      1352  |     11198  | 
                       |     50.05% |     37.87% |     12.07% |     40.81% | 
                       |     38.75% |     43.74% |     41.22% |            | 
                       |     20.43% |     15.46% |      4.93% |            | 
                       |     -7.32  |      7.30  |      0.51  |            | 
-----------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
  Don't know | Refusal |       191  |       175  |       117  |       483  | 
                       |     39.54% |     36.23% |     24.22% |      1.76% | 
                       |      1.32% |      1.81% |      3.57% |            | 
                       |      0.70% |      0.64% |      0.43% |            | 
                       |     -5.85  |      0.42  |      8.39  |            | 
-----------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
                Jewish |        34  |        21  |         3  |        58  | 
                       |     58.62% |     36.21% |      5.17% |      0.21% | 
                       |      0.24% |      0.22% |      0.09% |            | 
                       |      0.12% |      0.08% |      0.01% |            | 
                       |      0.90  |      0.14  |     -1.59  |            | 
-----------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
                Muslim |       159  |       160  |        73  |       392  | 
                       |     40.56% |     40.82% |     18.62% |      1.43% | 
                       |      1.10% |      1.65% |      2.23% |            | 
                       |      0.58% |      0.58% |      0.27% |            | 
                       |     -4.85  |      2.29  |      4.10  |            | 
-----------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
    Orthodox Christian |      1421  |      1959  |       636  |      4016  | 
                       |     35.38% |     48.78% |     15.84% |     14.64% | 
                       |      9.83% |     20.21% |     19.39% |            | 
                       |      5.18% |      7.14% |      2.32% |            | 
                       |    -23.81  |     19.29  |      8.21  |            | 
-----------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
                 Other |       730  |       425  |       119  |      1274  | 
                       |     57.30% |     33.36% |      9.34% |      4.64% | 
                       |      5.05% |      4.38% |      3.63% |            | 
                       |      2.66% |      1.55% |      0.43% |            | 
                       |      3.36  |     -1.51  |     -2.94  |            | 
-----------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
       Other Christian |       597  |       449  |       137  |      1183  | 
                       |     50.46% |     37.95% |     11.58% |      4.31% | 
                       |      4.13% |      4.63% |      4.18% |            | 
                       |      2.18% |      1.64% |      0.50% |            | 
                       |     -1.58  |      1.93  |     -0.40  |            | 
-----------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
            Protestant |      1866  |       807  |       358  |      3031  | 
                       |     61.56% |     26.62% |     11.81% |     11.05% | 
                       |     12.90% |      8.32% |     10.91% |            | 
                       |      6.80% |      2.94% |      1.30% |            | 
                       |     10.35  |    -10.64  |     -0.26  |            | 
-----------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
          Column Total |     14463  |      9695  |      3280  |     27438  | 
                       |     52.71% |     35.33% |     11.95% |            | 
-----------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|

 
Statistics for All Table Factors


Pearson's Chi-squared test 
------------------------------------------------------------
Chi^2 =  1200.107     d.f. =  16     p =  1.412899e-245 


 
       Minimum expected frequency: 6.93345

Contact with transgender individuals

Age

                     Df  Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)    
qc19_multinominal     2  111437   55719   171.1 <2e-16 ***
Residuals         27435 8936216     326                   
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

df_country_2 <-
  df_descriptive |> 
  mutate(qc1_8_ordinal = case_when(
    qc1_8_ordinal == "Very wide spread" ~ "Very or fairly wide spread",
    qc1_8_ordinal == "Fairly wide spread" ~ "Very or fairly wide spread",
    TRUE ~ qc1_8_ordinal
  )) |> 
  group_by(country_name) |> 
  summarize(
    prop_dis_wide = (sum(qc1_8_ordinal == "Very or fairly wide spread") / n())*100, 
    prop_qc19_yes = (sum(qc19 == 1) / n())*100)


cor(df_country_2$prop_dis_wide, df_country_2$prop_qc19_yes, method = "spearman")

[1] 0.4738916

Sexual minority

Support for LGB rights

Individual level
Country level


   Cell Contents
|-------------------------|
|                   Count |
|             Row Percent |
|          Column Percent |
|           Total Percent |
|           Adj Std Resid |
|-------------------------|

Total Observations in Table:  27438 

                              | df_descriptive$qc19_multinominal 
df_descriptive$qc15_1_ordinal |        Yes  |         No  | Don't know  |  Row Total | 
------------------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
                Totally agree |      8494  |      1806  |       776  |     11076  | 
                              |     76.69% |     16.31% |      7.01% |     40.37% | 
                              |     58.73% |     18.63% |     23.66% |            | 
                              |     30.96% |      6.58% |      2.83% |            | 
                              |     65.45  |    -54.25  |    -20.79  |            | 
------------------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
                Tend to agree |      3949  |      2458  |       948  |      7355  | 
                              |     53.69% |     33.42% |     12.89% |     26.81% | 
                              |     27.30% |     25.35% |     28.90% |            | 
                              |     14.39% |      8.96% |      3.46% |            | 
                              |      1.97  |     -4.02  |      2.89  |            | 
------------------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
             Tend to disagree |      1042  |      2297  |       438  |      3777  | 
                              |     27.59% |     60.82% |     11.60% |     13.77% | 
                              |      7.20% |     23.69% |     13.35% |            | 
                              |      3.80% |      8.37% |      1.60% |            | 
                              |    -33.30  |     35.28  |     -0.73  |            | 
------------------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
             Totally disagree |       690  |      2636  |       458  |      3784  | 
                              |     18.23% |     69.66% |     12.10% |     13.79% | 
                              |      4.77% |     27.19% |     13.96% |            | 
                              |      2.51% |      9.61% |      1.67% |            | 
                              |    -45.75  |     47.58  |      0.31  |            | 
------------------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
                   Don't know |       288  |       498  |       660  |      1446  | 
                              |     19.92% |     34.44% |     45.64% |      5.27% | 
                              |      1.99% |      5.14% |     20.12% |            | 
                              |      1.05% |      1.82% |      2.41% |            | 
                              |    -25.66  |     -0.73  |     40.57  |            | 
------------------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
                 Column Total |     14463  |      9695  |      3280  |     27438  | 
                              |     52.71% |     35.33% |     11.95% |            | 
------------------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|

 
Statistics for All Table Factors


Pearson's Chi-squared test 
------------------------------------------------------------
Chi^2 =  7514.449     d.f. =  8     p =  0 


 
       Minimum expected frequency: 172.8581

df_country_3 <- 
  df_descriptive |>
  mutate(qc15_1_ordinal = case_when(
    qc15_1_ordinal == "Totally agree" ~ "Totally or tend to agree",
    qc15_1_ordinal == "Tend to agree" ~ "Totally or tend to agree",
    TRUE ~ qc15_1_ordinal
  )) |> 
  group_by(country_name) |> 
  summarize(
    prop_lgb_yes = (sum(qc15_1_ordinal == "Totally or tend to agree") / n())*100, 
    prop_qc19_yes = (sum(qc19 == 1) / n())*100)


cor(df_country_3$prop_lgb_yes, df_country_3$prop_qc19_yes, method = "spearman")

[1] 0.8768473

Legal protections

Overview
Statistical association


   Cell Contents
|-------------------------|
|                   Count |
|             Row Percent |
|          Column Percent |
|           Total Percent |
|           Adj Std Resid |
|-------------------------|

Total Observations in Table:  27316 

                           | df_descriptive$qc19_multinominal 
df_descriptive$adp_general |        Yes  |         No  | Don't know  |  Row Total | 
---------------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
                         0 |      5472  |      4487  |      1734  |     11693  | 
                           |     46.80% |     38.37% |     14.83% |     42.81% | 
                           |     38.05% |     46.43% |     53.03% |            | 
                           |     20.03% |     16.43% |      6.35% |            | 
                           |    -16.75  |      8.94  |     12.59  |            | 
---------------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
                         1 |      8909  |      5178  |      1536  |     15623  | 
                           |     57.02% |     33.14% |      9.83% |     57.19% | 
                           |     61.95% |     53.57% |     46.97% |            | 
                           |     32.61% |     18.96% |      5.62% |            | 
                           |     16.75  |     -8.94  |    -12.59  |            | 
---------------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|
              Column Total |     14381  |      9665  |      3270  |     27316  | 
                           |     52.65% |     35.38% |     11.97% |            | 
---------------------------|------------|------------|------------|------------|

 
Statistics for All Table Factors


Pearson's Chi-squared test 
------------------------------------------------------------
Chi^2 =  324.114     d.f. =  2     p =  4.164315e-71 


 
       Minimum expected frequency: 1399.77

Statistical modeling

modelling variables from descriptive analysis using a hierarchical (multilevel) logistic regression modeling
checked for missing data, and considered imputing the age_stopped_education variable because out of the variables containing missing data, it made the most sense.
No palpable difference ultimately.
PMM-Imputation the best imputation method (according to distribution)

Check variables with missing data

summary(is.na(Data_final_Ind))

  serialid       country_name    binary_qc19        male        
 Mode :logical   Mode :logical   Mode :logical   Mode :logical  
 FALSE:27438     FALSE:27438     FALSE:24158     FALSE:27438    
                                 TRUE :3280                     
    d11          Cat_age_four    Cat_age_six     Cat_age_seven  
 Mode :logical   Mode :logical   Mode :logical   Mode :logical  
 FALSE:27438     FALSE:27438     FALSE:27438     FALSE:27438    
                                                                
 political_ideology Religion_cat    sd1_7_factor    age_stopped_education
 Mode :logical      Mode :logical   Mode :logical   Mode :logical        
 FALSE:22749        FALSE:27438     FALSE:27438     FALSE:25375          
 TRUE :4689                                         TRUE :2063           
 d60_ordinal       sd2_5         area_type       qc15_1_ordinal 
 Mode :logical   Mode :logical   Mode :logical   Mode :logical  
 FALSE:27059     FALSE:27438     FALSE:27424     FALSE:27438    
 TRUE :379                       TRUE :14


 iter imp variable
  1   1  age_stopped_education
  1   2  age_stopped_education
  1   3  age_stopped_education
  1   4  age_stopped_education
  1   5  age_stopped_education
  2   1  age_stopped_education
  2   2  age_stopped_education
  2   3  age_stopped_education
  2   4  age_stopped_education
  2   5  age_stopped_education
  3   1  age_stopped_education
  3   2  age_stopped_education
  3   3  age_stopped_education
  3   4  age_stopped_education
  3   5  age_stopped_education
  4   1  age_stopped_education
  4   2  age_stopped_education
  4   3  age_stopped_education
  4   4  age_stopped_education
  4   5  age_stopped_education
  5   1  age_stopped_education
  5   2  age_stopped_education
  5   3  age_stopped_education
  5   4  age_stopped_education
  5   5  age_stopped_education


 iter imp variable
  1   1  age_stopped_education
  1   2  age_stopped_education
  1   3  age_stopped_education
  1   4  age_stopped_education
  1   5  age_stopped_education
  2   1  age_stopped_education
  2   2  age_stopped_education
  2   3  age_stopped_education
  2   4  age_stopped_education
  2   5  age_stopped_education
  3   1  age_stopped_education
  3   2  age_stopped_education
  3   3  age_stopped_education
  3   4  age_stopped_education
  3   5  age_stopped_education
  4   1  age_stopped_education
  4   2  age_stopped_education
  4   3  age_stopped_education
  4   4  age_stopped_education
  4   5  age_stopped_education
  5   1  age_stopped_education
  5   2  age_stopped_education
  5   3  age_stopped_education
  5   4  age_stopped_education
  5   5  age_stopped_education


 iter imp variable
  1   1  age_stopped_education
  1   2  age_stopped_education
  1   3  age_stopped_education
  1   4  age_stopped_education
  1   5  age_stopped_education
  2   1  age_stopped_education
  2   2  age_stopped_education
  2   3  age_stopped_education
  2   4  age_stopped_education
  2   5  age_stopped_education
  3   1  age_stopped_education
  3   2  age_stopped_education
  3   3  age_stopped_education
  3   4  age_stopped_education
  3   5  age_stopped_education
  4   1  age_stopped_education
  4   2  age_stopped_education
  4   3  age_stopped_education
  4   4  age_stopped_education
  4   5  age_stopped_education
  5   1  age_stopped_education
  5   2  age_stopped_education
  5   3  age_stopped_education
  5   4  age_stopped_education
  5   5  age_stopped_education


 iter imp variable
  1   1  age_stopped_education
  1   2  age_stopped_education
  1   3  age_stopped_education
  1   4  age_stopped_education
  1   5  age_stopped_education
  2   1  age_stopped_education
  2   2  age_stopped_education
  2   3  age_stopped_education
  2   4  age_stopped_education
  2   5  age_stopped_education
  3   1  age_stopped_education
  3   2  age_stopped_education
  3   3  age_stopped_education
  3   4  age_stopped_education
  3   5  age_stopped_education
  4   1  age_stopped_education
  4   2  age_stopped_education
  4   3  age_stopped_education
  4   4  age_stopped_education
  4   5  age_stopped_education
  5   1  age_stopped_education
  5   2  age_stopped_education
  5   3  age_stopped_education
  5   4  age_stopped_education
  5   5  age_stopped_education

Imputation

# Combine the new set of plots into a grid
plot_grid(plotlist = plots, nrow = 3, ncol = 2)

Multi-level analysis

generalized linear mixed-effects model (GLMM), where country_name was the variable used as the random effects.

glm_model_2 <- glmer(binary_qc19 ~ male + d11 + I(d11^2) + political_ideology +
               Religion_cat + sd1_7_factor + d60_ordinal + qc15_1_ordinal +
               prop_gndr_bin + prop_dis_wide + Unemployment + (1 | country_name),
               data = Data, family = binomial, 
               control = glmerControl(optimizer = "bobyqa", optCtrl = list(maxfun = 100000)))
summary(glm_model_2)

Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
  Approximation) [glmerMod]
 Family: binomial  ( logit )
Formula: 
binary_qc19 ~ male + d11 + I(d11^2) + political_ideology + Religion_cat +  
    sd1_7_factor + d60_ordinal + qc15_1_ordinal + prop_gndr_bin +  
    prop_dis_wide + Unemployment + (1 | country_name)
   Data: Data
Control: glmerControl(optimizer = "bobyqa", optCtrl = list(maxfun = 1e+05))

     AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
 20435.5  20704.5 -10183.7  20367.5    20171 

Scaled residuals: 
    Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
-6.4039 -0.6105  0.3309  0.5685  5.9159 

Random effects:
 Groups       Name        Variance Std.Dev.
 country_name (Intercept) 0.1296   0.3601  
Number of obs: 20205, groups:  country_name, 28

Fixed effects:
                                    Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
(Intercept)                        3.234e-01  3.009e-01   1.075  0.28248    
male                              -3.591e-01  3.530e-02 -10.173  < 2e-16 ***
d11                                2.836e-02  5.113e-03   5.546 2.92e-08 ***
I(d11^2)                          -3.173e-04  4.961e-05  -6.395 1.60e-10 ***
political_ideology2                7.860e-02  1.162e-01   0.676  0.49893    
political_ideology3               -2.507e-02  9.271e-02  -0.270  0.78685    
political_ideology4               -1.105e-01  9.139e-02  -1.209  0.22674    
political_ideology5               -1.462e-01  7.873e-02  -1.857  0.06335 .  
political_ideology6               -2.897e-01  8.956e-02  -3.234  0.00122 ** 
political_ideology7               -5.223e-01  8.990e-02  -5.810 6.24e-09 ***
political_ideology8               -5.675e-01  9.180e-02  -6.182 6.32e-10 ***
political_ideology9               -5.556e-01  1.229e-01  -4.522 6.11e-06 ***
political_ideologyRight           -1.360e-01  9.752e-02  -1.395  0.16303    
Religion_catCatholic              -2.401e-01  5.519e-02  -4.350 1.36e-05 ***
Religion_catJewish                 2.438e-01  3.699e-01   0.659  0.50983    
Religion_catMuslim                -7.643e-01  1.583e-01  -4.827 1.39e-06 ***
Religion_catOrthodox Christian    -2.567e-01  9.259e-02  -2.772  0.00557 ** 
Religion_catOther                 -2.329e-01  1.799e-01  -1.295  0.19538    
Religion_catOther Christian       -4.322e-01  9.184e-02  -4.706 2.52e-06 ***
Religion_catOther Religion        -2.094e-01  8.803e-02  -2.379  0.01737 *  
Religion_catProtestant            -1.982e-01  7.172e-02  -2.763  0.00572 ** 
sd1_7_factorNo                    -6.139e-01  6.735e-02  -9.114  < 2e-16 ***
sd1_7_factorRefusal (SPONTANEOUS) -8.757e-01  1.730e-01  -5.063 4.12e-07 ***
sd1_7_factorDon't know            -5.918e-01  1.226e-01  -4.827 1.39e-06 ***
d60_ordinalFrom time to time       1.609e-01  7.497e-02   2.147  0.03181 *  
d60_ordinalAlmost never/ never     3.073e-01  7.239e-02   4.246 2.18e-05 ***
qc15_1_ordinalTend to agree       -8.462e-01  4.518e-02 -18.730  < 2e-16 ***
qc15_1_ordinalTend to disagree    -1.922e+00  5.607e-02 -34.276  < 2e-16 ***
qc15_1_ordinalTotally disagree    -2.359e+00  6.343e-02 -37.195  < 2e-16 ***
qc15_1_ordinalDon't know          -1.745e+00  1.023e-01 -17.059  < 2e-16 ***
prop_gndr_bin                      4.360e+00  5.621e-01   7.757 8.72e-15 ***
prop_dis_wide                     -1.731e+00  7.264e-01  -2.383  0.01718 *  
Unemployment                       6.801e-02  2.575e-02   2.641  0.00825 ** 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
fit warnings:
Some predictor variables are on very different scales: consider rescaling
optimizer (bobyqa) convergence code: 0 (OK)
Model failed to converge with max|grad| = 5.51108 (tol = 0.002, component 1)
Model is nearly unidentifiable: very large eigenvalue
 - Rescale variables?
Model is nearly unidentifiable: large eigenvalue ratio
 - Rescale variables?

Generalized linear mixed model fit by maximum likelihood (Laplace
  Approximation) [glmerMod]
 Family: binomial  ( logit )
Formula: 
binary_qc19 ~ male + d11 + I(d11^2) + political_ideology + Religion_cat +  
    sd1_7_factor + d60_ordinal + qc15_1_ordinal + prop_gndr_bin +  
    prop_dis_wide + Unemployment + (1 | country_name)
   Data: Data
Control: glmerControl(optimizer = "bobyqa", optCtrl = list(maxfun = 1e+05))

     AIC      BIC   logLik deviance df.resid 
 20435.4  20704.5 -10183.7  20367.4    20171 

Scaled residuals: 
    Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
-6.4121 -0.6099  0.3306  0.5684  5.9261 

Random effects:
 Groups       Name        Variance Std.Dev.
 country_name (Intercept) 0.1296   0.3601  
Number of obs: 20205, groups:  country_name, 28

Fixed effects:
                                  Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
(Intercept)                        1.34662    0.29782   4.522 6.14e-06 ***
male                              -0.35962    0.03531 -10.184  < 2e-16 ***
d11                               -0.07900    0.01901  -4.154 3.26e-05 ***
I(d11^2)                          -0.10476    0.01764  -5.940 2.85e-09 ***
political_ideology2                0.07867    0.11626   0.677  0.49861    
political_ideology3               -0.02515    0.09271  -0.271  0.78618    
political_ideology4               -0.11063    0.09139  -1.211  0.22608    
political_ideology5               -0.14640    0.07873  -1.860  0.06294 .  
political_ideology6               -0.29011    0.08956  -3.239  0.00120 ** 
political_ideology7               -0.52307    0.08990  -5.819 5.93e-09 ***
political_ideology8               -0.56836    0.09179  -6.192 5.95e-10 ***
political_ideology9               -0.55645    0.12286  -4.529 5.92e-06 ***
political_ideologyRight           -0.13621    0.09752  -1.397  0.16251    
Religion_catCatholic              -0.24032    0.05520  -4.354 1.34e-05 ***
Religion_catJewish                 0.24430    0.36967   0.661  0.50869    
Religion_catMuslim                -0.76532    0.15838  -4.832 1.35e-06 ***
Religion_catOrthodox Christian    -0.25704    0.09260  -2.776  0.00551 ** 
Religion_catOther                 -0.23312    0.17988  -1.296  0.19497    
Religion_catOther Christian       -0.43283    0.09186  -4.712 2.46e-06 ***
Religion_catOther Religion        -0.20965    0.08805  -2.381  0.01726 *  
Religion_catProtestant            -0.19850    0.07174  -2.767  0.00566 ** 
sd1_7_factorNo                    -0.61464    0.06737  -9.123  < 2e-16 ***
sd1_7_factorRefusal (SPONTANEOUS) -0.87691    0.17298  -5.069 3.99e-07 ***
sd1_7_factorDon't know            -0.59260    0.12264  -4.832 1.35e-06 ***
d60_ordinalFrom time to time       0.16122    0.07498   2.150  0.03154 *  
d60_ordinalAlmost never/ never     0.30780    0.07240   4.251 2.12e-05 ***
qc15_1_ordinalTend to agree       -0.84747    0.04519 -18.754  < 2e-16 ***
qc15_1_ordinalTend to disagree    -1.92485    0.05608 -34.321  < 2e-16 ***
qc15_1_ordinalTotally disagree    -2.36292    0.06346 -37.237  < 2e-16 ***
qc15_1_ordinalDon't know          -1.74741    0.10228 -17.084  < 2e-16 ***
prop_gndr_bin                      4.37162    0.56045   7.800 6.18e-15 ***
prop_dis_wide                     -1.73790    0.72437  -2.399  0.01643 *  
Unemployment                       0.22144    0.08377   2.643  0.00821 ** 
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Best model


Results of GLMM Analysis
=============================================================
                                      Dependent variable:    
                                  ---------------------------
                                          binary_qc19        
-------------------------------------------------------------
male                                       -0.360***         
                                            (0.035)          
                                                             
d11                                        -0.079***         
                                            (0.019)          
                                                             
I(d112)                                    -0.105***         
                                            (0.018)          
                                                             
political_ideology2                          0.079           
                                            (0.116)          
                                                             
political_ideology3                         -0.025           
                                            (0.093)          
                                                             
political_ideology4                         -0.111           
                                            (0.091)          
                                                             
political_ideology5                         -0.146*          
                                            (0.079)          
                                                             
political_ideology6                        -0.290***         
                                            (0.090)          
                                                             
political_ideology7                        -0.523***         
                                            (0.090)          
                                                             
political_ideology8                        -0.568***         
                                            (0.092)          
                                                             
political_ideology9                        -0.556***         
                                            (0.123)          
                                                             
political_ideologyRight                     -0.136           
                                            (0.098)          
                                                             
Religion_catCatholic                       -0.240***         
                                            (0.055)          
                                                             
Religion_catJewish                           0.244           
                                            (0.370)          
                                                             
Religion_catMuslim                         -0.765***         
                                            (0.158)          
                                                             
Religion_catOrthodox Christian             -0.257***         
                                            (0.093)          
                                                             
Religion_catOther                           -0.233           
                                            (0.180)          
                                                             
Religion_catOther Christian                -0.433***         
                                            (0.092)          
                                                             
Religion_catOther Religion                 -0.210**          
                                            (0.088)          
                                                             
Religion_catProtestant                     -0.199***         
                                            (0.072)          
                                                             
sd1_7_factorNo                             -0.615***         
                                            (0.067)          
                                                             
sd1_7_factorRefusal (SPONTANEOUS)          -0.877***         
                                            (0.173)          
                                                             
sd1_7_factorDon't know                     -0.593***         
                                            (0.123)          
                                                             
d60_ordinalFrom time to time                0.161**          
                                            (0.075)          
                                                             
d60_ordinalAlmost never/ never             0.308***          
                                            (0.072)          
                                                             
qc15_1_ordinalTend to agree                -0.847***         
                                            (0.045)          
                                                             
qc15_1_ordinalTend to disagree             -1.925***         
                                            (0.056)          
                                                             
qc15_1_ordinalTotally disagree             -2.363***         
                                            (0.063)          
                                                             
qc15_1_ordinalDon't know                   -1.747***         
                                            (0.102)          
                                                             
prop_gndr_bin                              4.372***          
                                            (0.560)          
                                                             
prop_dis_wide                              -1.738**          
                                            (0.724)          
                                                             
Unemployment                               0.221***          
                                            (0.084)          
                                                             
Constant                                   1.347***          
                                            (0.298)          
                                                             
-------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                                20,205           
Log Likelihood                            -10,183.720        
Akaike Inf. Crit.                         20,435.440         
Bayesian Inf. Crit.                       20,704.510         
=============================================================
Note:                             *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01

[1] 20435.44

[1] 20704.51

Key Findings - Demographics and Beliefs

Gender Influence: Females show higher odds of support compared to males, potentially reflecting societal gender roles and perceptions.
Age Dynamics: Support increases with age up to a point, then declines, suggesting life experiences or generational shifts might influence attitudes toward inclusivity.
Political Ideology: Conservative alignment correlates with less support for transgender individuals’ rights to change civil documents, showing a 22.8% decrease in support.

Conclusion

Cross-Country Differences: Variations in support for transgender rights across countries are influenced by demographics (such as age), political and religious affiliations, social determinants, awareness of LGBTI issues, and economic conditions.

Prediction

We aim to build a model to predict support for transgender individuals to change legal documents.

Model = binary_qc19 ~ male + d11 + I(d11^2) + political_ideology + Religion_cat + sd1_7_factor + d60_ordinal + qc15_1_ordinal + Unemployment + prop_gndr_bin + prop_dis_wide

Gradient boosting

Confusion Matrix and Statistics

          Reference
Prediction   No  Yes
       No  1172  597
       Yes  409 1902
                                          
               Accuracy : 0.7534          
                 95% CI : (0.7399, 0.7666)
    No Information Rate : 0.6125          
    P-Value [Acc > NIR] : < 2.2e-16       
                                          
                  Kappa : 0.4917          
                                          
 Mcnemar's Test P-Value : 3.729e-09       
                                          
            Sensitivity : 0.7413          
            Specificity : 0.7611          
         Pos Pred Value : 0.6625          
         Neg Pred Value : 0.8230          
             Prevalence : 0.3875          
         Detection Rate : 0.2873          
   Detection Prevalence : 0.4336          
      Balanced Accuracy : 0.7512          
                                          
       'Positive' Class : No

Variables Importance

Partial dependence plot

ROC Curve

Final Predictive Model

The selected predictive model for our international analysis is Gradient Boosting (GB).

GB not only has one of the highest Accuracy levels but also achieves the most balanced rates of Specificity and Sensitivity. Such a robust performance profile makes it the optimal choice for our data set.

We found that this model, is the most adept and effective at predicting whether countries will support the right of transgender individuals to change their civil documents.